Membrana did not invent its method. It combines three ideas that researchers have tested on people who smoke: putting your own money on the line, checking with a real test instead of taking your word, and not telling you when the check comes.
People work harder to avoid losing something they already have than to win the same amount. Researchers call this loss aversion. In a study that paid people for not smoking, one group could earn money and the other was given the money and could lose it. The group that could lose it was more likely to start a smoke-free day. The group that could earn was better at keeping it going once started. So a loss is a strong push to begin, and it is not a magic trick.
In a deposit contract you pay in before you start and get your money back by staying smoke-free, shown by a test. In one small study, 47% of breath samples met the smoke-free criterion while the deposit contract ran, against 1% before it. In a randomized trial, smokers offered a deposit contract were 3 percentage points more likely to pass a test for nicotine at 6 months, and the effect persisted in surprise tests at 12 months. In a large US trial, 13.7% of people offered a deposit programme accepted it, and 52.3% of those who did stayed smoke-free through six months.
A study of 604 employees who smoked, in 61 companies, looked at how a financial incentive leads to quitting. The incentive worked through people's confidence that they could quit, and those offered it also made more use of quitting medication.
A Cochrane review of 39 trials with 18,303 people found that incentives raise long-term quit rates (risk ratio 1.52).
In all of these studies, staying smoke-free was confirmed by a biological test, not by asking. Membrana does the same: every check is a saliva test done on camera.
Membrana chooses the check days with its own scheduling algorithm, built on probability theory. You choose the day of your first check; after it, each next check day is drawn at random, within rules that keep all ten checks inside the thirty days. A check can come the very next day after another one, so being checked yesterday does not make today safe.
These studies tested deposits and incentives in general, not Membrana itself. Results differed between studies, and no method works for everyone. Membrana is not a medical treatment or a diagnosis.